It’s not always wise to trust yourself.
In qualitative research, it’s important to enter each study with an open mind. This is one reason clients hire outsiders to do this sort of work – we are unencumbered by preexisting opinions. Clients, because they are so close to their business, tend to have firm beliefs about their brands. Often, it falls to outsiders to challenge those beliefs. This can create tension.
Human beings don’t like to have their beliefs challenged. It’s uncomfortable, and it complicates things. Certainty – considering some topics no longer up for debate – is one way we simplify matters.
My last newsletter was about critical thinking. Being able to question fundamental beliefs is an essential part of this skillset. If you’re thinking critically, you’ll be suspicious of your own opinions, particularly your strong convictions. Certainty can be the enemy of clear, logical, critical thinking.
The desire for certainty is firmly rooted in human evolution, and has served many important purposes during our history as a species:
Risk reduction – Seeking a high degree of certainty in a situation may reduce the likelihood of bad decisions. For instance, if you try to be as certain as possible that an investment won’t lose money, there’s less chance you’ll take a loss.
Persuasiveness – If you truly believe something yourself, that will come across when you try to convince somebody else.
Social cohesion – Homo sapiens is a tribal animal. In social groups, having shared firm beliefs about social norms can engender cooperation and trust. This is crucial to survival under difficult conditions.
Cognitive efficiency – Certainty conserves cognitive resources. Making decisions under uncertainty is mentally taxing. A preference for certainty simplifies decision-making, making it quicker and less resource intensive.
So, certainty is something we naturally seek. But sometimes, this instinct works against our interests. The art lies in figuring out when to re-open debate, and when to let something remain settled.
This is when it’s helpful to have a process. Here are three questions to ask when you might be overly certain about something:
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What emotions are triggered when you entertain doubt about a belief? If you’re becoming angry or anxious, that’s a cue to push past those feelings and question this belief.
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What evidence would need to change your position? If you can’t articulate that, that’s not a good sign. Unfalsifiable beliefs can be dangerous.
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Can you state opposing perspectives honestly? Also, how do you feel about people who hold those opinions? If you doubt their character, can’t honestly state their position and resort to personal attacks, that’s a sign of false certainty.